Saturday, April 16, 2011

NBA playoffs

I love playing with this playoff simulator more than I would probably care to admit. (I.E. maybe doing a thousand simulations over the course of a couple weeks.)

I've been playing it with the hopes that somehow, someway I'll be able to get the two worst teams to advance to the finals and face each other (two worst teams being essentially the Grizzlies and the Pacers). I tried doing the odds of that happening--I couldn't figure it out, but it's just about close to zero. So really, I've just been completely wasting my time.

I decided then to waste my time even more. Using the simulator linked above, I went through the playoffs a hundred times to see who has the best chance to win it all--according to this, of course. This might be interesting to one of you--if I'm allowed to count myself as one. But, I was bored, the playoffs start today, and this post will be extremely funny when the Grizzlies and the Pacers face each other in the finals in a month or two.

WESTERN CONFERENCE WINNERS:
Spurs--33%
Lakers--27%
Thunder--18%
Mavericks--11%
Nuggets--6%
Blazers--3%
Grizzlies--2%
Hornets--0%

EASTERN CONFERENCE WINNERS:
Bulls--38%
Heat--28%
Magic--21%
Celtics--12%
Knicks--1%
76ers, Hawks, Pacers--0%

NBA FINALS WINNERS:
Bulls--25%
Spurs--19%
Lakers--17%
Magic--11%
Heat--10%
Celtics--6%
Mavericks--5%
Thunder--4%
Blazers, Nuggets, Grizzlies--1%
Knicks, Hornets, 76ers, Hawks, Pacers--0%

THINGS TO CONSIDER:
-The odds are sort of unfairly in the Spurs' favor. Cause they most likely won't get past both the Thunder and the Lakers...
-Also, the Magic should not have the 4th best odds to win it all. 7th or 8th would be more fitting.
-If this is at least somewhat accurate and the Thunder make it to the finals, BET AGAINST THEM BECAUSE THEY WILL LOSE. Record in the finals for them: 4-14--and that was before pulling two wins out right at the end. Heat are also a good team to bet against.
-Grizzlies made it to the finals twice--both on consecutive simulations. Blazers 3 times, all within 5 simulations. Two combined made it to 5 finals over the course of 7 simulations. Kind of interesting... if you're me and are interested in boring odds for a sports playoff.

My own personal feeling is Lakers/Thunder in the West, Bulls/Celtics in the East, and then Lakers over Bulls in the finals.

I actually think the Bulls will win, but I'm going with the Lakers in an effort to jinx them. Actually, let's go with Heat/Lakers if I'm going to be jinxing anything...

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