Oscar Predictions

Might as well do these now...?

BEST PICTURE

The prevailing theory is, given its success on some of the precursor awards, the King’s Speech is going to win this and possibly pretty much sweep everything it’s nominated for. I don’t think the sweep will happen honestly (and I’m hoping it doesn’t… cause it’s going to seem awfully silly in a few years when we see that stuff like The Social Network and Black Swan got shafted while some middlebrow (albeit well done) flick swept the entire thing), but it has to be the favorite since it fits the classic Oscar mold. There’s a small chance Social Network somehow pulls off the upset, since the overwhelming numbers of all the critical awards it won might influence some voters. But although that’d be great… it’s maybe a 2% shot of actually coming to fruition.

WILL WIN: King’s Speech
SHOULD WIN: Social Network or Black Swan

BEST DIRECTOR

So. One of those precursor awards—the director’s guild—pretty much surprised everyone by giving the award to Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech (which pretty much signaled the race was over for Best Picture). And given that the film as a whole has a decent chance to sweep, I’m sort of inclined to give it to him. But the academy sometimes likes to give out awards to overall careers rather than the most deserving person, so I’m going with David Fincher for The Social Network. It also just so happens that he’s (one of) the most deserving nominee(s)… so let’s do it, academy!

WILL WIN: David Fincher
SHOULD WIN: Well… honestly, anyone other than Hooper. But Fincher and Black Swan’s Aronofsky.

BEST ACTOR

Colin Firth has this so wrapped up he could shoot the queen and still win it. Which is unfortunate, because I liked Jesse Eisenberg’s performance better, plus Jeff Bridges is awesome and James Franco winning would be cool in the “Freaks & Geeks alum strikes gold” vein. But so it goes.

WILL WIN: Colin Firth for King’s Speech
SHOULD WIN: Owen Wilson as the voice of Marmaduke

BEST ACTRESS

Apparently there is a late surge from Annette Bening from The Kids Are All Right that poses a threat to Natalie Portman’s ostensibly locked up win for Black Swan (or so I read). I hope like hell this isn’t the case, because… a) this would be one of those “honoring the career moreso than the performance” cases (which I should say I find to be stupid… unless it’s benefitting someone I like), and b) I hated her character and disliked her movie. Which I guess isn’t really a critique on the actual performance, but even so, in her own movie I thought Julianne Moore made a better choice for best actress. I’m still giving it to Portman however, since the Academy usually likes to spread the wealth and I can’t see Black Swan getting any other wins.

WILL WIN: Portman
SHOULD WIN: Portman… and I don’t even really like her anyway.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

I am going to say it again… this is an absolutely stellar field of nominees. Anyway, Christian Bale seemed to have this locked up for his performance in The Fighter, and quite deservedly so, since he steals just about every scene. BUT—with the looming King’s Speech sweep hanging over everything, there’s been rumblings that Geoffrey Rush might just steal it. Which I hope doesn’t happen. And again… I don’t hate that movie, but it’s not a movie that inspired a lot of passion in me, which means I have stronger favorites in each category it’s nominated in. Anyway, cooler heads hopefully prevail, and Bale wins it.

WILL WIN: Christian Bale
SHOULD WIN: Bale… although it’d be great to see John Hawkes from Winter’s Bone take it as well.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Melissa Leo from The Fighter *was* the favorite, but there’s been some rumblings that someone like Helena Bonham Carter from The King’s Speech could surprise if the film sweeps everything. Me? I’m going with Hailee Steinfeld from True Grit… cause the academy likes spreading the wealth and True Grit is the only film with a Best Director nominee (a.k.a. the category that would probably give you an idea of what the Best Picture nominees would be if they were still 5) left to win a major award.

WILL WIN: Hailee Steinfeld
SHOULD WIN: Steinfeld or Amy Adams for The Fighter

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This is King’s Speech. No question.

WILL WIN: Titanic 2
SHOULD WIN: Hell, give it to Inception

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

You would think, given that it’s the most celebrated part of the movie, that The Social Network would have this locked up. But I think Toy Story 3 has an outside shot. Not likely going to happen, but if the academy wants to give a consolation prize to a film (and really, a franchise) that is wonderful, it’ll be this. (Best Animated Feature, by the way, stops being a consolation prize when you win every single year.)

WILL WIN: Social Network
SHOULD WIN: Macgruber

And here are the rest that I’ll just list, since I doubt anyone’s reading this anyway:

ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 3
CINEMATOGRAPHY: True Grit
MUSIC (SCORE): King’s Speech
MUSIC (SONG): Toy Story 3
FOREIGN LANGUAGE: In A Better World
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE): Exit Through The Gift Shop
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT): Strangers No More
EDITING: Social Network
ART DIRECTION: King’s Speech
SOUND EDITING: Inception
SOUND MIXING: Inception
VISUAL EFFECTS: Inception
MAKEUP: The Wolfman
COSTUME: Alice In Wonderland
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED): The Gruffalo
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION): God Of Love

I might be forgetting something...